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2021 PGA Tour WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational: Odds, Predictions & Expert Picks

Author-Avatar
Author:
Bradley Gibbs
Last Updated:
September 10, 2021
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This author was thoroughly tested and approved by the experts at BettingBilly.com before joining the editorial board to ensure a high content quality.
Author Bio:
 
Bradley is one of the newer faces on our team of betting experts. When he's not placing yet another absolute monster bet with the bookmaker he trusts, he's passionate about watching soccer and golf. The PGA Tour is therefore also one of his expert fields.
Bradley is one of the newer faces on our team of betting experts. When he's not placing yet another absolute monster bet with the bookmaker he trusts, he's passionate about watching soccer and golf. The PGA Tour is therefore also one of his expert fields.
2021 PGA Tour WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational: Odds, Predictions & Expert Picks Thumbnail
Brooks Koepka
Brooks Koepka Portrait
Dustin Johnson
Dustin Johnson Portrait
Webb Simpson
Webb Simpson Portrait
Billy Horschel
Billy Horschel Portrait
Martin Laird
Martin Laird Portrait
Shane Lowry
Shane Lowry Portrait
Billy Horschel Portrait
Billy Horschel
Martin Laird Portrait
Martin Laird
Shane Lowry Portrait
Shane Lowry
Phil Mickelson Portrait
Phil Mickelson
WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational
Took place: 05/08/2021 2:00 pm in Memphis, Tennessee
Winner: Abraham Ancer

WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational General Information:

  • Date: Thursday 5th August – Sunday 9th August
  • TV-Time: NBC/CBS, 2:00 p.m. ET
  • Venue: TPC Southwind
  • Location: Memphis, Tennessee
  • Cut: N/A
  • Price Money: $10,250,000 ($1,745,000 1st Place)
  • Winner last year: Justin Thomas

2021 PGA Tour WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational: Odds, Predictions & Expert Picks Thumbnail
Our expert picks
Pick #1
Webb Simpson to Finish Top 10
Best odds
+300
Units: 3/10
Additional Pick
Dustin Johnson to Win
Best odds
+1800
Units: 1/10
Additional Pick
Billy Horschel to Finish Top 20
Best odds
+225
Units: 3/10
Your Expert:
+113%
Bradley Gibbs

Tournament, Conditions & Course Info

The best golfers in the world will come together in Tennessee on Thursday afternoon for the WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational. The majors may be over for this year, but there’s still plenty of first-class golf to be played, and first-class golf is exactly what we should see at TPC Southwind this week. 48 of the world’s top 50 players will tee off in Shelby County. Current world number one Jon Rahm misses out thanks to a positive COVID-19 test, while South African Christian Bezuidenhout has opted out.

2019 winner Brooks Koepka will feature, as he looks to wrestle back his crown from 2020 winner Justin Thomas, though with no shortage of big names, this event is far from being all about those two. Two-time winner of this tournament, Dustin Johnson will be a big threat, as will the likes of Collin Morikawa and Rory McIlroy, who comes here off the back of a pleasing showing at the Olympics. On the subject of Tokyo, Olympic champion Xander Schauffele will be eying up back-to-back victories.

Even for the best players in the world, TPC Southwind presents a tough challenge. With strategically placed hazards dotted all around, accuracy is a must, while tight greens that are smaller than most of the PGA increase the importance of dialled in approach play. This is very much a course when strokes gained: tee-to-green is a key stat, while those who perform highly in terms of scrambling should be at an advantage too.

Expert Pick #1 – Webb Simpson to Finish Top 10  @+300

Webb Simpson isn’t generally talked about in the same breath as the likes of DJ, Rory or Justin Thomas, but at 16 in the world, he’s not a player to forget about ahead of this week. The seven-time PGA Tour winner arrives here off the back of a respectable T19 in the Open Championship, his sixth top 20 of the campaign, which is not to be sneezed at given that he’s only played in 12 events.

Simpson has done well at this venue in the past, finishing third and second in his last four appearances at the FedEx St Jude. He was also 12th last season. Among those in the field, the 35-year-old also ranks 6th in terms of strokes gained: approach at this venue in the last five seasons, as well as eighth for strokes gained: tee-to-green. Moreover, he’s the fourth-best player in terms of strokes gained: total, on this course (last five seasons).

Throw in the fact that we’re talking about the number one scrambler on the PGA Tour right now and a bet on Webb Simpson to finish inside the top ten, something he’s done not once but twice before, is hard to resist at appealing odds of +300.

Fedex Cup Rank: 53 | Fedex Cup Points: 777 | OWGR: 16

Expert Pick #2 – Dustin Johnson to Win @+1800

DJ hasn’t won since claiming The Masters back in late 2020, but don’t let that put you off the big-hitting North Carolinian, who has threatened to get seriously involved at the top of a few leaderboards in recent times, finishing T10, T19 and T8 in the last six weeks or so.

Crucially, this is a course that Johnson likes, while he’s not averse to winning this prize, getting his hands on it in both 2012 and 2018. In addition, the current world number two boasts a set of strokes gained numbers here that cannot be matched. He ranks number one when it comes to strokes gained: total on this track in the last five seasons, as well as first for strokes gained: tee-to-green, second for strokes gained: off-the-tee and fourth for strokes gained: putting.

The recent victories of Morikawa and Schauffele mean it is they that come here with the heat on them, while DJ can slip under the radar somewhat. Given what he’s shown at this venue in the past, the two-time FedEx St Jude Invitational winner ought to be slightly closer to the head of the market and thus a bet on him winning at odds of +1800 offers bettors a slither of value.

Fedex Cup Rank: 15 | Fedex Cup Points: 1,434 | OWGR: 2

Expert Pick #3 Billy Horschel to Finish Top 20 @+225

It’s been a good year for Billy Horschel, who won on the PGA Tour for the sixth time when emerging victorious from the WGC Match Play back in late March.

What’s eye-catching about Billy is his form at TPC Southwind over the last six or seven years. It took him a while to warm to this place but after a few attempts, the current world number 25 started to thrive, finishing 10th in 2013. He’s since posted four top-ten finishes in this event, which are stats that are hard to discount. The 11th best in this field when it comes to strokes gained: off-the-tee at this venue in the last five seasons, as well as the 11th best in terms of strokes gained: total (at TPC Southwind), Billy Horschel is fancied to once again showcase his skills in Shelby County. Bettors can profit by supporting him to hit the top 20.

Fedex Cup Rank 24 | Fedex Cup Points: 1,241 | OWGR: 25

2021 PGA Tour WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational: Odds, Predictions & Expert Picks Thumbnail
Our expert picks
Pick #1
Webb Simpson to Finish Top 10
Best odds
+300
Units: 3/10
Additional Pick
Dustin Johnson to Win
Best odds
+1800
Units: 1/10
Additional Pick
Billy Horschel to Finish Top 20
Best odds
+225
Units: 3/10
Your Expert:
+113%
Bradley Gibbs

2021 WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational Additional Picks

Top-Five

Dustin Johnson (+400)

As mentioned above, there’s lots to like about Dustin Johnson this week. This is an event that he’s not just done well in, but is an event that he’s won twice. He has some of the best strokes gained numbers in this field (on this track), and really does have every chance of going close. 

Including his two victories at the WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational, DJ has three top five finishes to his name. The man who gains more strokes than any other player at TPC Southwind is a solid Top-Five bet. 

Top-10

Shane Lowry (+400)

Ireland’s Shane Lowry comes here in decent form having finished T12 at the Open Championship, before finishing in a respectable 22nd at the Olympics last week. Moreover, he adapted well to the test presented by TPC Southwind last season when finishing sixth here. 

The major winner has some excellent strokes gained data at this course, ranking as the ninth best player in the field in terms of strokes gained: total in the last five seasons, while on average, he’s gained more strokes with the putter here than any other player competing this time around. If you’re looking for a solid top-ten bet, then at the prices, there are few better options than Shane Lowry. 

Top-20

Phil Mickelson (+300)

Mickelson is well and truly into the twilight of his career, but he’s already shown that he’s not a man to be discounted on the big stage already this season. If the veteran can deliver a masterclass to win the PGA Championship on a tough course such as Kiawah Island, then there’s no reason why he cannot compete here. 

Lefty has enjoyed himself in this event in recent years, finishing inside the top 20 in six of the last seven renewals. That sort of form is hard to ignore. 

First-Round Leader

Brooks Koepka (+2000)

If you’re looking for a first round leader bet then look no further than Brooks Koepka, who has made a habit of getting off to a fast start in this event in the past. 

The four-time major winner has played in the FedEx St Jude on seven occasions. He’s held the lead after the first round in two of those seven starts, while he’s been in the top five three times after round one. We all know Brooks turns up in the big events and he’s likely to come out the gate fast on Thursday. 

The Big Hero

Martin Laird (+30000)

If it’s a real outside that you’re after then Martin Laird has got you covered. The veteran won’t be a popular pick this week, but he’s played well here before, while he’s tasted victory this season too. 

Accurate driving is going to be important this week and Laird knows how to be well positioned off the tee, as he’s currently the fourth best player (in this field) on the PGA Tour in terms of driving accuracy. He also ranks as the tenth best when it comes to strokes gained: tee-to-green on this track, so he looks a good bet to outplay his huge outright odds. 

100/100
DJ to impress at TPC Southwind

We should see some fantastic golf played as the best in the world get together at TPC Southwind this week. There’s no shortage of talent in the field, but of the biggest names, Dustin Johnson is the one to side with. If you want to go in a slightly different direction then there’s a selection of viable alternative options. 

2021 PGA Tour WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational: Odds, Predictions & Expert Picks Thumbnail
Our expert picks
Pick #1
Webb Simpson to Finish Top 10
Best odds
+300
Units: 3/10
Additional Pick
Dustin Johnson to Win
Best odds
+1800
Units: 1/10
Additional Pick
Billy Horschel to Finish Top 20
Best odds
+225
Units: 3/10
Your Expert:
+113%
Bradley Gibbs

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