Two teams searching desperately for a place in the postseason go head-to-head at Saputo Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Can either of them get the result required to make it through to the play-offs and keep their MLS Cup dreams alive?
This will be the third time that the teams have met this season. The first fixture saw Montreal win by four goals to two in Orlando, while the Canadians got another positive result at the same venue in the second fixture, this time picking up a point thanks to a 1-1 draw.
Club de Foot Montreal – Home advantage should help
The campaign comes down to this final game for the newly rebranded Club de Foot Montreal. Sunday’s hosts come into this fixture outside the coveted top seven, but win and they could easily slip into the play-off places and keep their season alive.
The hosts will be thankful that this must-win game is at Saputo Stadium, where they’re unbeaten in three, two of which they’ve won. Last time out at this venue, Olivier Renard’s men picked up a confidence-boosting win against the Houston Dynamo, scoring twice and keeping a clean sheet on route to victory.
Expected Line-Up: Breza – Waterman, Camacho, Miller – Brault-Guillard, Hamdi, Wanyama, Choiniere – Torres, Mihailovic, Quioto.
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Orlando City – A point will do
This is a big game for the visitors too, but their task is perhaps slightly simpler than that of the hosts. Pick up a point here and they’re in the play-offs. Unfortunately, though, playing on the road has presented the Orlando boys with a few problems of late.
Óscar Pareja’s men have won just one of their last 11 travelling fixtures, and that win came against whipping boys FC Cincinnati. The issue is simple, they concede far too many goals, surrendering two or more in five of their last six away from the comforts of Exploria Stadium. Given Montreal’s recent scoring form at home, such a lack of defensive solidity does not bode well.
Expected Line-Up: Gallese – Smith, Jansson, Carlos Antonio, Ruan – Perea, Mendez – Mueller, Pereyra, Nani – Dike.
Expert Pick #1 – Club de Foot Montreal to Win @+110
This is a must-win game for the hosts and bettors can make it pay by betting on them to do just that. For starters, the Montreal men have done well against the visitors this season, winning away from home, while their home record, both recently and overall, is superior to Orlando’s travelling record.
The Canadian franchise has a healthy win ratio at home, winning nine times, whereas the visitors have picked up just four wins away from home. Moreover, Renard’s troops boast a pleasing average expected goal difference of +0.49 at home, which again is far better than the -0.32 achieved by Orlando on the road. Add tok this that the hosts come here off the back of regular home wins of late, alongside the fact that the away side has lost four out of six away, and the home win becomes hard to resist with the lines the way they are currently.
Expert Pick #2 – Club de Foot Montreal to Score Over 1.5 Goals @-110
If you’re looking to get some more juice out of this fixture, then take the hosts to notch a couple of goals on route to victory. The visitors have made a habit of conceding more than once on their travels in recent weeks, shipping two or more in five of their last six, while they’ve conceded an average of 1.87 on the road overall this term.
The home side comes here having scored more than once in three out of three at Saputo Stadium, as well as in four out of five, averaging 1.81 goals per game overall at home this season, not to mention a healthy average of 1.68 expected goals.
Expert Pick #3 – Romell Quioto to Score @+175
Honduran international Romell Quioto has enjoyed a fruitful campaign for the hosts, and it would be little surprise if he was to round the regular season off with a goal against a visiting defence that has been anything but secure of late. The forward hasn’t scored for a while, but he’s now back from injury, while he averages a very impressive 0.72 xG per 90 minutes. He also found the net when the teams last met, plus he averages an eye-catching 3.34 shots per 90 mins in a Club de Foot Montreal jersey.
In what is a huge game for both, a game that will ultimately determine whether the season goes down as a success or not, it is the hosts who have more in favour. On their own patch, where they’ve been strong, the Montreal boys are fancied to overcome an Orlando City side that has struggled to get going on the road.
