Having finally regained the winning thread last time out, Inter Miami looks for another step in the right direction on Saturday evening. The hosts will welcome Cincinnati to DRV PNK Stadium. This will be the fourth ever renewal of this fixture, and the third this season. Back in May, Saturday’s hosts emerged victorious from a fixture at TQL Stadium, winning by three goals to two, while they repeated the feat last month, this time winning by a goal to nil. The Miami boys will be looking to maintain their 100% record in this fixture.
Inter Miami – Back on track
It took a while, and several disappointing results, but Phil Neville’s men finally got back on track last time out, and they did so by scoring a much-needed trio of goals. Failing to produce in the final third is what was costing the men in white, but now that they’ve got themselves back among the goals, they may be able to get going again.
At home in general, Inter Miami isn’t a side that’s easy to face. Only Nashville and the Red Bulls have won here since July, meaning that the hosts have lost just two of their last eight at home, five of which they’ve won.
Expected Line-Up: Marsman – Leerdam, Gonzalez, Makoun, Shea – Chapman, Gregore – Vassilev, Morgan – Higuain, Robinson.
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Cincinnati – Down and out
The season isn’t yet over, but it may as well be for the Cincinnati boys, who’ve been playing with a level of dejection of late. The visitors arrive at this junction having lost eight games on the spin, and there really is no hope of them getting anywhere near the postseason places.
For a long time, defensive weakness hampered the ability of the Orange and Blue to pick up the points required, but now they’re struggling offensively too, which would suggest that they’re almost resigned to a season of no achievement. Then again, after scoring just once in three games, they did notch three times in defeat last time out, so maybe there is still something left in the tank.
Expected Line-Up: Tyton – Bailey, Cameron, Blackett, Castillo, Mataritta – Cruz, Medunjanin, Acosta – Vazquez, Brenner.
Expert Pick #1 – Inter Miami to Win @-120
Following what was a confidence-boosting win last time out, the hosts are hard to go against here. As opportunities to get the job done at home go, they don’t come much bigger than this. Cincinnati have nothing to play for and are very much a wounded animal.
It’s not that the hosts have been amazing at home this season, just that the visitors have been terrible away from home. While Inter Miami have an average expected goal difference of -0.28 at home, the visitors have an average xG difference of -1.17, which is hard to ignore. Throw in that the Neville’s men have made a bit of a habit of winning at home in recent times, winning five of their last eight at this venue, and they look a good bet to beat an away team that has lost five out of five on the road in recent times.
Expert Pick #2 – Inter Miami to Score Over 1.5 Goals @-120
The Miami boys aren’t exactly known for being free-scoring, but at home of late, they’ve enjoyed something of a fruitful spell in front of goal, notching three last time out, as well as two or more in five of their last eight, while they’ve already scored four in two games against Cincinnati this season.
Throw in the fact that the visitors have conceded at least three in each of their last five away from home, as well as a dismal average of 2.31 expected goals per 90 minutes on the road, and a bet on the hosts to notch two or more appeals greatly, especially at what appear to be slightly generous odds.
Expert Pick #3 – Robbie Robinson to Score @+185
It’s been a while since Inter Miami’s Robbie Robinson got on the scoresheet, but his efforts of late suggest that his next goal isn’t far away. The 22-year-old averages a pleasing 0.33 expected goals per 90, which at Inter Miami is second only to Gonzalo Higuain, while he fires off an encouraging 2.36 shots per 90 too. Against weak opposition, if he starts, Robinson is well worth supporting to regain the scoring thread.
No matter how you look at this fixture, it rates as a big opportunity for the hosts to pick up another three points. After boosting their confidence with a win last time out, Inter Miami can pick up another three points by beating a visiting side that is down and out.