Following their recent unbeaten run, Inter Miami will be hoping to continue moving in the right direction when they host Nashville SC at DRV PNK Stadium on Sunday evening. The visitors have an unbeaten record of their own to preserve.
This will be the second time that the pair have faced each other this time. The first meeting came back in May, and it was a rather drab affair. The game finished 0-0 and there weren’t many talking points. Five shots on target were shared, while the match saw a combined total of only 1.0 expected goals created. Interestingly one of the previous four meetings between these two has produced more than two goals.
Inter Miami – Form improving
After what was a dreadful spell, which saw Inter Miami go six games without picking up a single point, Phil Neville’s men have got their acts together in recent weeks. Sunday’s hosts arrive here off the back of three games unbeaten.
They may have won just one of those three, but after six straight wins, three games without tasting defeat shows clear progress. They continue to find it tough to score multiple goals, scoring more than once in just one of their last nine fixtures, but they’re now doing a better job of restricting the opposition, at least in terms of goals conceded.
Expected Line-Up: Marsman – Ulloa, Leerdam, Makoun, Figal, Gibbs – Morgan, Gregore, Matuidi, Robinson – Higuain.
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Nashville SC – Steady as ever
Unlike the hosts, whose form has changed recently, the Nashville SC ship remains as steady as ever. Gary Smith’s men have now gone nine straight games without tasting defeat, which is an achievement well worth recognising. They’re not the most regular winners, winning just three of those nine, while they’ve not won back-to-back this season, but they are very, very tough to get the better of, as just one defeat this campaign suggests.
What will lift the hosts ahead of this fixture is the fact that their opponents, tough as they are, have struggled to produce the goods offensively on their travels. Sunday’s travellers have scored just three goals away from home this season, failing to score in four out of six games on the road overall.
Expected Line-Up: Willis – Miller, Castellanos, Romney – Washington, McCarty, Anunga, Leal, Johnston – Mukhtar, Sapong.
Expert Pick #1 – Under 2.5 Goals @-140
When we scratch beneath the surface, a lack of goals screams out here. The pair struggled massively to produce moments of excitement when they met earlier in the campaign, while neither side has thrived offensively of late. Inter Miami have improved slightly of late, scoring in each of their last three, but they’ve still scored more than once on just one occasion since May. In addition, Nashville averages a quite ridiculous 0.5 goals per away match this season, while they’ve now scored in just one of their last four road games.
Unsurprisingly, ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ is a bet that has paid dividends when Nashville have been in action away from home this term, with all but one of their six games producing less than three goals. High-scoring fixtures have been more commonplace at Sunday’s venue, but not because Inter Miami have been outstanding offensively. What’s more, Nashville’s solid defense isn’t exactly going to help the hosts improve their output, which is poor, as a total of seven goals scored in eight home matches suggests. If we combine Miami’s home games with Nashville’s away games, the pair have scored a total of just ten goals in 14 games.
Expert Pick #2 – Both Teams to Score – NO @-105
There’s plenty that points towards ‘Both Teams to Score – NO’ being a viable option, especially at a fraction under +100. We can see above that both struggle offensively, and after all, not one of the previous four renewals of this fixture has seen both teams find the net, and the efforts of both this season don’t exactly suggest that that’s about to change here.
Expert Pick #3 – Under 1.5 Goals @+200
From an expected goals point of view, ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ makes lots of appeal and so does ‘Under 1.5 Goals. As mentioned above, Nashville averages 0.83 xG for on the road, while Phil Neville’s hosts are averaging 1.32 xG for at home. Such figures don’t exactly scream goals, that’s for sure, nor does the fact that we’re talking about a game between the second-lowest home scorers at home in the east and the lowest away scorers. As mentioned in the section above, in their respective home and away games, the pair have scored an average of just 0.71 goals.
For one reason or another, both teams will fancy themselves to get a positive result from this match, but everything points towards the fans in attendance at DRV PNK Stadium witnessing a low-scoring encounter. Bettors can profit by supporting a lack of goals.