The LA Galaxy will go in search of a much-needed win on Saturday evening, but beating a rejuvenated Timbers side won’t be easy. The visitors travel to the city of angels having won each of their last four and thus will be in a buoyant mood.
The Portland Timbers had begun to establish a period dominance in this fixture winning three on the bounce, culminating in a 3-0 win over the Galaxy back in May, but their run of wins came to an end in July, when Saturday’s hosts won by four goals to one at this venue. Greg Vanney will be looking for more of the same from his men this time around.
LA Galaxy – Downward spiral
For much of the campaign, it looked as though Galaxy would make light work of securing one of the top spots in the west. They got off to a flying start and were winning with regularity. However, things have since gone awry for Greg Vanney’s men, who thanks to a poor run of form have dropped to a disappointing sixth place. They’re still in the play-off spots, but their place in the postseason looks far less secure.
The Galaxy arrive at this point having lost three of their last four games, while they’ve now without a win in nine fixtures. Perhaps more worrying is the fact that they’re without a win in five at home.
Expected Line-Up: Bond – Araujo, Coulibaly, DePuy, Hamalainen – dos Santos, Raveloson – Alvarez, Vaquez, Grandsir – Chicarito.
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Portland Timbers – Making progress
There can be no denying that for some time, the Timbers were struggling. They were inconsistent and for more than just a few weeks, it looked as though the postseason may be beyond Giovanni Savarese, but they’ve since picked up the pace and made sizable forward strides.
The Timbers have now won four on the bounce, while they are without defeat since late August, winning seven and tying just one during that time. Such a prolific point-scoring spell has lifted Savarese and his troops back into the familiar position of being comfortably inside the play-off spots in the Western Conference.
Expected Line-Up: Clark – Van Rankin, Mabiala, Zuparic, Bravo – Asprilla, Fochive, Chara, Loria – Mora, Chara.
Expert Pick #1 – Under 3.5 Goals @-155
Goals are usually fancied when this pair get together, so it’s no surprise that the current odds show a high-scoring game to be very likely. That said, if we look at the recent efforts of both, it’s not too difficult to see a relatively low-scoring game occurring. It’s even easier to feel that the chances of a less than extremely high-scoring game are more likely than the early betting suggests.
In their recent away games, Portland have done a good job of keeping teams at bay, conceding just one goal in over 360 minutes of travelling soccer. They’ve also done well in terms of restricting teams creatively, conceding an average of just 1.0 expected goal in their last four on the road. None of those four saw more than three goals go in. Similarly, Galaxy’s last six games at home have produced less than four goals.
Expert Pick #2 – Portland +1 Handicap @-110
At what really does look like a generous price, the visitors are hard to resist with a goal headstart. Portland’s recent away form has been fantastic, while the Galaxy have been struggling both home and away. Not only have the visitors kept three clean sheets in their last four on the road, but the hosts have scored more than once in none of their last six in their own backyard.
Such a stat is worrying, especially given the Timbers’ recent security at the back. Having ground out a result away against the likes of Seattle and LAFC in recent weeks, the visiting team is well worth supporting to avoid defeat against the wounded animal that is the Los Angeles Galaxy.
Expert Pick #3 – Felipe More to Score @+170
If a player prop is what you’re looking for here, then look no further than Felipe Mora, who is enjoying a fine campaign for the Timbers. The scorer of 11 goals this term, the Chilean was used sparingly during the international break and should now be raring to go. He’s scored in four of Portland’s last five on the road, while his average of 0.56 expected goals per 90 minutes bodes well ahead of a game against a Galaxy side that doesn;t exactly keep regular clean sheets.
Portland’s recent defensive displays, especially away from home, points towards less of a high-scoring game than the betting odds suggest, while the recent efforts of both also lead us to believe that the visitors can get a positive result, and should they do that, it would be little surprise if the impressive Felipe Mora has a big say.
