The New England Revolution look to make it two wins from two after their recent defeat on Saturday evening. They will host New York City, who proved to be a thorn in the side of the Revs not that long ago, at Gillette Stadium.
This won’t be the first time that the pair have met this season, nor will it be the second. Back in June, New England Revolution won by three goals to two away from home, though the New York boys got their revenge, winning at the same venue just a fortnight ago.
New England Revolution – Home is where the heart is
The best team in the east, New England Revs are looking strong under the wiley stewardship of Bruce Arena, who currently has his team two points clear at the top of the standings. In terms of recent form, minus a small blip, a blip which actually arrived in this fixture just a fortnight ago, the hosts have impressed, winning five of their last six.
At home in general, Arena’s men have been tough to face. Averaging 2.55 points per game at Gillette Stadium, they have the best home record in the Eastern Conference, while they’re the third best in terms of goals scored, expected goal difference and expected goals for. Throw in that they’re unbeaten in five in their own backyard, four of which they’ve won, and it’s easy to see the hosts thriving on Saturday, despite their recent slip up against NYCFC.
Expected Line-Up: Turner – Mafla, Kessler, Farrell, Jones – Bunbury, Caldwell, McNamara, Boateng – Bou, Kaptoum.
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New York City – Travelling troubles
New York City are another of Major League Soccer’s solid performers over the last couple of months, losing just two of their last night, five of which they’ve won, including a game against Saturday’s opposition just a fortnight ago.
However, while their recent form overall hasn’t been poor, their overall effort on the road this term has left plenty to be desired. The visitors find themselves inside the bottom half of the Eastern Conference when it comes to points per away fixture, picking up an average of just 0.90, winning just two of their ten travelling matches. They’ve lost five of the other seven. Such facts don’t exactly point towards a stellar display away against the division leaders.
Expected Line-Up: Johnson – Tinnerholm, Latinovich, Morales, Amundsen – Parks, Tabarez – Medina, Tajouri, Rodriguez – Castellanos.
Expert Pick #1 – New England Revolution to Win @+110
At odds of +110 on the moneyline, the team leading the way in the east is hard to avoid from a betting point of view. As touched on above, the Revs collect an impressive 2.55 points per home game to NYCFC’s 0.90 on the road. The hosts also boast a rather superior average expected goal difference. Arena’s men possess an average xG difference of +0.81 at home, while the visitors have an average expected goal difference of +0.28.
The visitors are by no means a weak side and they did beat the Rev just two weeks ago, but that wasn’t at this venue, and the change of location really can make all the difference.New York City have won none of their last six on the road, four of which they’ve lost, while very few teams have had what it takes to upset the New England Revolution on their own patch this term, and the conference leaders are supported to pick up another important win in their quest for eastern dominance.
Expert Pick #2 – New England Revolution to Score Over 1.5 Goals @-105
To support the bet above, siding with the home side to score at least twice is worthwhile. Only on rare occasions have the hosts failed to score at least twice at home this season, notching two or more in eight out of 11 in front of a home crowd, including in each of their last three, in which they’ve put away a total of nine. The best home team in the east when it comes to expected goals for, averaging 1.84, knows how to go about getting it done offensively, while they’re up against a visiting side that, though not overly poor defensively, has surrendered two or more in four of their last six on the road.
Expert Pick #3 – New England Revolution to Win & Both Teams to Score @+295
A third and final option is to combine the home win with a ‘Both Teams to Score’ bet. For all they have the attacking power to overcome Saturday’s visitors, the Revs haven’t exactly made a habit of keeping clean sheets, conceding in all but two of their nine home wins this season, while both teams have registered on the score-sheet in each of the two previous renewals of this fixture this term.
We’re talking about the best team in the Eastern Conference, and it is the best team in the Eastern Conference who look set to take the win here. Back on their own patch, where they really have been imperious this season, Bruce Arena’s MLS Cup hopefuls can take revenge on their New York opponents.