The New York rivals go head to head once again in Major League Soccer as NYCFC play host to the Red Bulls, who haven’t won away at this venue since 2016, when they scored no fewer than seven goals on route to victory.
This will be the second renewal of this fixture this season, not to mention the second meeting in less than a week. On Wednesday, the pair played at Red Bull Arena, where they shared the spoils, tying 1-1.
New York City – Hardy hosts
The NYCFC boys will have been bitterly disappointed not to return from Red Bulls Arena with all three points on Wednesday evening, that’s for sure. They took the lead through the ever present Valentin Castellanos, who scored his 13th MLS goals of the season, just after 30 minutes and it looked for all to see that the visitors had done enough until a penalty was awarded deep into stoppage time. Patryk Klimala kept his cool and it was just a point for Sunday’s hosts.
Four days later and Ronny Deila’s men have the perfect opportunity to take revenge, and fortunately, they can do so surrounded by the comforts of home, which is where they’ve been at their best this term. Only two Eastern Conference teams have claimed more home points than NYCFC this season.
Expected Line-Up: Johnson – Tinnerholm, Callens, Morales, Thorarinsson – Acevedo Tabarez, Sands – Medina, Moralez, Rodriguez – Castellanos.
with best odds
New York Red Bulls – Bouncing back
It’s been a season built very much on inconsistency for the New York Red Bulls this time around, as Saturday’s visitors have found it very tough indeed to put their best foot forward on a regular basis. Fortunately, they’ve bounced back of late, winning by four goals to nil when last in action on the road and holding Sunday’s opponents, who’re 12 points above them in the Eastern Conference standings, level in front of a home crowd.
The worry ahead of this match is the fact that playing away from home has brought NYRB little joy this season. Yes, they picked up a big win on the road last time out, but that doesn’t change the fact that only two Eastern Conference teams have picked up fewer travelling points than the Red Bulls this campaign.
Expected Line-Up: Carlos – Edwards, Nealis, Reyes, Tolkin – Davis, Yearwood -Fernandez, Fabio, Carmona – Klimala.
Expert Pick #1 – New York City to Win @-150
At first glance, NYCFC might appear to be on the short side in the betting, but they’re really not. There’s a gulf in class between these two teams right now and although Wednesday’s result doesn’t show that, Saturday’s game at Yankee Stadium can.
As touched on above, the hosts have one of the best home records in the east, while the visitors have one of the worst away records. Moreover, travelling to this stadium is not something that has suited the Red Bulls in recent times. They’ve lost four of their last five here and are without a win in five years.
If we strip it back further and look beyond results, all the data points towards a home win. NYCFC is the best team in all of Major League Soccer in terms of expected goal difference at home. They have an average xG difference of +1.45 at Yankee Stadium, which really is impressive. In stark contrast, NYRB possesses an average expected goal difference of -0.19 away from home, so the home win is a must, especially at odds which despite appearing short may actually be a tad generous.
Expert Pick #2 – New York City to Win & Over 1.5 Goals @+100
NYCFC can win this and score multiple goals in the process. Deila’s men have been on fire at home this season, scoring 29 times in 12 matches, notching two or more on eight occasions, including in each of their last five. They’ll also arrive at Saturday’s game having produced expected goals numbers of 2.4, 2.1, 2.5, 3.8 and 3.9 in their last five at Yankee Stadium.
Against a Red Bulls side that has shipped two or more in three of the last four on the road, the hosts are expected to score at least twice on route to claiming all three points.
Expert Pick #3 – Valentin Castellanos to Score @+3300
It’s been a fine season for the Argentinian, who is really starting to find his feet in Major League Soccer, and frankly, it’s surprising to see him priced above +150 for a goal here. The forward scored against NYRB just four days ago, while he averages 0.57 goals per 90 minutes, as well as a staggering 0.77 expected goals per 90 minutes. Such numbers make it hard not to bet on NYCFC’s main man to find the net for the second time in a week against his team’s bitter rivals.
In the second renewal of the Hudson River Derby in just four days, the hosts have the advantage. Their efforts at home have been far superior to the efforts of New York Red Bulls on the road, so much so that they look a good bet to emerge victorious. Those looking for a bit more juice in the price, can combine a home win with multiple home goals.