Two of the most dominant Welterweight likes will finally take on each other on Saturday evening in Las Vegas. Before the elite fights return to Fight Island in Abu Dhabi, we’ll have an opportunity to enjoy a fantastic UFC Fight Night card at the UFC APEX this weekend. The card is packed with ferocious bouts, two of which stand out. Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone will be looking to handle his business against Nico Price in the co-main event, while Covington and Woodley will lead the line in the biggest fight of the evening.
Colby Covington – The Heavy Favorite
With all due respect to the former champion Tyron Woodley, it's Colby Covington who enters the clash as a heavy favorite. He has earned a huge reputation over the last several years. He looked phenomenal during a seven-win streak since June 2016. However, his talent has not been fully revealed until August 6th last year. It was the day when the "Chaos" produced the performance of his career. He went head to head with Robbie Lawler, the former champion and one of the most dangerous men in the sport. It was truly an exceptional fight that saw a super-aggressive Covington dominating such a powerful opponent. The "Chaos" had it all in the fight. Explosive take-ins, ideal movement, a fantastic blend of boxing and grappling. He showed it all and well-deserved the biggest win of his career back then. A win that has made him a top contender as the bout with the Welterweight champion Kamaru Usman.
Unfortunately, Covington lost the fight to the Nigerian beast in late-2019. Nevertheless, he left a very strong impression taking Usman into five brutal rounds. He stood toe-to-toe with Kamaru for four and a half rounds before being wobbled in the dying stages of the fifth. According to the majority of fans, it was one of the best UFC betting opportunities of the whole year. Gilbert Burns emerged as the top contender and he will get his chance against the champ later this year. As for Colby, he now has a perfect opportunity to rebound and get his well-deserved rematch with the champion. Usman’s win against Burns is another safe pick and we’d not be surprised to see Kamaru vs Colby 2 very soon. The recipe against a 38-year-old Woodley should be simple. If Covington repeats the display he showed in a commanding win over Lawler, there is no way he would lose the Woodley clash. In our eyes, his win at -390 odds is a safe bet.
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Tyron Woodley – Ex Champ Looking for Glory
Do not get us wrong, Woodley is a legend of the sport. He is the owner of the fastest knockout in the UFC welterweight title clash history. He has been the champion of the division until the arrival of the aforementioned Kamaru Usman. However, there is a big BUT to everything stated so far in the paragraph. Woodley is in the twilight of his career. He is 38-year-old and he has lost his last two matches being completely dominated by both Usman and Burns in the process. He had no way to stop the grappling attacks from Kamaru in what was probably the worst performance of his career. Sadly, he repeated the feat against Gilbert Burns, leaving us to think he does not have any chance of upsetting Colby Covington here, despite the tempting +310 odds offered for those who pick him as a winner. To make things worse for Tyron, the “Chaos” has the same style of the two fighters he had lost to in his last two bouts.
On the other side, there is the pressure factor. A potential third successive loss would completely move Tyron Woodley from the crème-de-la-crème of the sport. This is why most people look at the fight as "Win or Go Home" for Woodley who would truly have nothing to look for among the division elite with a defeat here. He won't lack motivation, though, especially knowing how much he hates Covington. We'd say it's a shame this bout did not happen two years ago because it has lost steam by today. Woodley landed no more than 34 strikes against Usman and 28 against Burns. He used to be a much more dominant fighter earlier in his career. We’d not be surprised to see him land fewer than 25 strikes here against Colby. This is why Woodley’s win is an impossible scenario to happen in our eyes. Stay away from this bet despite the attractive odds.